DEATHPOOL PART 1

A few years back, my pope-squatting, Associated Press-slaying, partner-in-Drudge Rogers Cadenhead told me about the Alison LaPlaca Open, a TV Deathpool named after one of sitcom's greatest utility players, Alison LaPlaca. The purpose of the Deathpool was simple: pick 10 new or returning programs you believe will get cancelled in the upcoming TV season.

Last year I came tantalizingly close to winning - eight of my picks went down in flames (which is a good thing). There were obvious choices: Viva Laughlin, Cavemen and Carpoolers. And there were some risks; I chose Back To You starring Frasier's Kelsey Grammer because I felt the show wasn't particularly funny and was a terrible fit for Fox. Back To You might have had a chance on CBS, The Home For Sitcoms Starring Actors Who First Became Famous On NBC (Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Jason Alexander, Ted Danson, Bill Cosby).

I came in sixth place, losing out to among others Rob Long. Like me, Long is a TV writer. Unlike me, he wrote for a show that people actually liked: Cheers.

Last year, Rogers told me his picks after having submitted them, and I proceeded to inform him why he was destined to lose. Like many playing the TV Deathpool, Rogers had made his picks based on shows he thought were good or bad. But there's much more than that involved in the decision to cancel a TV show. Like politics, incumbents are hard to beat. Rogers and 30 others predicted the cancellation of stalwart According to Jim. But what those 31 people didn't understand was that no matter how bad or tired According To Jim may be, the set has already been built, and the actors' salaries were negotiated years ago. Many of the costs of According to Jim have been amortized over six years. Plus one more season of According To Jim in primetime translates to a huge amount of money in syndication. Factors like these help keep a cheap old show on the air and an expensive new show off.

So on to this year's TV Deathpool (which was renamed due to threatened litigation by Alison LaPlaca). This time around I gave Rogers some advice. The most important piece of advice was this: pick new shows. TV programs are like restaurants - most of them fail in the first year. Though there are plenty of existing shows I suspect will fail this season (Life, Don't Forget The Lyrics, Eli Stone, 'Til Death), there's no bonus for picking an old show (though there should be), and as a gambler, I'm always looking for an edge. New TV shows are the sucker at the poker table.







1. ER (NBC)
Having said all that, my first pick for cancellation is ER. Why ER? Simple: it was announced earlier this year that ER would not be returning. Yes, everything I said about new shows is true, but only one thing trumps good odds, and that's a sure thing.

My picks for the 2nd through 10th TV shows most likely to get cancelled in the 2008-2009 Fall Season continue tomorrow. Rogers' full list is located on his weblog.