Two days ago,
I began posting my picks for the
Ted Marshall Deathpool, a contest where cynics attempt to predict which television shows will get cancelled in the upcoming Fall TV Season.
Here's a link to the initial post.All these picks were locked in August 31, 2008 - before any of the shows premiered. Which explains my #6 pick...
6. 90210 (CW)

My sense is that the people behind the new
90210 don't understand why the old
90210 was popular. The operative word is "camp." But instead of campy, the new
90210 looks crappy. Plus, they've got a black guy as a main character on the show, and that's not gonna work. Why? Well, there are only two ways to play the "black kid in Beverly Hills" plot. Either you joke around about the fact that Beverly Hills is a inherently racist city - in which case
90210 will become a poor man's
Fresh Prince Of Bel Air... or you get very serious about the problem of racism in Beverly Hills - in which case... what else is on?
Generation X is not going to like the new
90210 because it won't be campy and it won't have enough Brenda Walsh and Kelly Taylor. And Gen Y already
has a
90210 - it's called
The Hills: rich kids living in a glamorous city hanging out in cool clubs and restaurants.
I wrote the above explanation for why I believed
90210 would fail this season prior to its premier - which garnered a record-high rating for a show premiering on the CW network. I still stand by my prediction that the show will fail. I believe the show's first-week ratings are an anomaly. The CW didn't offer the pilot of
90210 to critics, so the critics couldn't review it. This is a standard tactic used in the motion picture industry when the studio thinks they've got a crummy movie on their hands. They run a huge advertising blitz and keep the product from the reviewers... that way there's no bad buzz on the movie going into opening weekend. The studio hopes it can draw as many moths to the flame as possible before word gets out that the film stinks. I believe that's what the CW did with
90210. And I believe that over the next few weeks, viewers will start to flee. This had been evidenced in the second week's ratings - about a million viewers didn't tune in again.
I could be completely wrong; this could be the show that turns it all around for the CW. But my guess is that after the 2008-2009 season, not only will
90210 be gone, but either Viacom or Time Warner will pull out of the CW entirely.
7. OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS (ABC)
Opportunity Knocks is a game/reality show whose basic premise is similar to
Amnesia (a terrible idea for a show executed poorly... that I worked on last year) - it's a game show that's all about
you! And by you, I mean whatever person is chosen by the casting department. The show comes to your house and quizzes you about items in your home or something. Here's the problem: Who gives a crap? Just like
Amnesia, no one at the network or production company ever asked the question: "If the
contestant can't remember how many Michael Bolton CDs he owns... why the hell would the viewing audience care?"
Opportunity does have three things going for it. One, it's cheap to make. So even if the ratings aren't huge, it could deliver for the network on a cost basis. Second, it's on the right network - family-friendly ABC. Third, it's good counter-programming for
NCIS (is that still
on?) and
House. Unfortunately, I think
Opportunity's audience will be swallowed up by the fatties on
Biggest Loser.
8. KNIGHT RIDER (NBC)

What is it with NBC and retro? The only thing that could keep Knight Rider from being put up on blocks is the fact that it's good counter-programming for young males (against Old Christine and America's Next Top Model).
NBC's Wednesday night line-up is all over the place, by the way. It starts off with
Knight Rider - a male-skewing retro car program... then goes into
Deal Or No Deal - a older-skewing game show... then finishes off the night with
Lipstick Jungle - a female-skewing
Sex And The City clone. Are they
trying to lose?
9. WORST WEEK EVER (CBS)
Nothing is harder to do than to get people to watch a new sitcom - even if it's good. I don't know if Worst Week is good or not (the promo I saw didn't make me laugh), but CBS has decided to put this new sitcom at the end of its Monday Night sitcom block (
Big Bang, HIMYM, 2 1/2 Men). That's a pretty solid block of TV. But at 9:30 p.m.,
Worst Week is up against
Samantha Who.
Samantha has a terrific lead-in with
Dancing With The Stars, so I think the night's going to belong to ABC. (Fox is counter-programming with the male-friendly
Terminator and
Prison Break.)
10. GARY UNMARRIED (CBS)

Here are the strikes against
Gary Unmarried.
Strike 1: It's on its second or third title (
Project Gary was one of them). That never bodes well.
Strike 2: It stars Jay Mohr. I like Mohr, but half of America has never heard of him and the other half doesn't like him.
Strike 3: It's kind of the exact same show as its lead-in,
The New Adventures Of Old Christine.
On a personal note, for the last two months I worked in the bungalow next to
Gary Unmarried, and I never heard laughter coming out of their bungalow. Sometimes they'd work outside, and I never heard them laughing out there either. If the writers aren't even making
themselves laugh... bad sign.
Oh - I forgot Strike 4 - After Alison LaPlaca made the TV Deathpool change its name, it became the Ted Marshall TV Deathpool - Ted as in sitcom killer Ted McGinley and Marshall as in sitcom killer Paula Marshall. Paula Marshall is one of the stars of
Gary Unmarried, and on that basis alone I feel compelled to put
Gary Unmarried on my TV Deathpool list.
THE ONE I ALMOST PUT ON THE LIST: KATH & KIM (NBC)

NBC really wants this one to work - they've given it a primo time slot between
Earl and
The Office. The only problem is, this is kind of a female family sitcom. That doesn't really fit with
Earl,
The Office and
30 Rock. Plus with Molly Shannon and Selma Blair as the stars, the show's budget must be super top-heavy with salaries. Finally, Frank Magid and Associates, the people who usually send consultants into TV stations to tell news directors how to run their shops, did tracking surveys of NBC promos during the Olympics. The
Kath & Kim promos had the lowest recall factor of any show advertised. I watched a few of those promos myself, and they're not very memorable. Or funny. But... it was developed by NBC head Ben Silverpants, so no matter how bad it turns out to be, he'll keep it on.
MY BIGGEST FLIP-FLOP: THE EX LIST (CBS)

At first I thought this show looked like a total disaster. A female
High Fidelity meets the Israeli occult...? Plus the network is burying it on Friday nights. Plus it's going to lose the older female demo to
Supernanny and the younger female demo to a rerun of
America's Next Top Model. But after seeing the promos, I started to think that if women actually got to
see this show, they might like it. It looks like it might be a romantic version of
My Name Is Earl... an
Ally McBeal without the lawyer crap. And maybe the chicks will be tired of
Supernanny and bored with the
ANTM rerun and actually watch
The Ex List. Plus,
The Ex List seems like a good companion piece for Ghost Whisperer. Better still - maybe it'll get just enough buzz for CBS to move it to a better night. So I've gone from putting
The Ex List at #2 in my Deathpool to predicting it could be the break-out hit of the 2008-2009 television season.